A funny thing happened this morning. When I checked my gmail account there were a half dozen or so requests for Trade Notification. That was unusual. It didn't take long to realize someone had made mention of me.
I truly am flattered! And I agree. Predicting the future based on the past is not a worthwhile objective. Rather, assessing risk based on past technical performance carried to the present, and considering the message therein within the context of reasonable Elliott Wave-based possibilities — likewise tying in current events speaking for the social psychology underlying our contemporary investment world — more or less summarizes how I go about forecasting.
I find that, being "oracular" is less about luck than reasonable discipline. However luck will have some bearing where the rubber meets the road: performance. That's simply because possibilities, though finite, always are several. This is no cop out. It is a statement of fact.
Being that the downfall of most investors probably is due to losing the forest for the trees, I suspect my readers most appreciate the better sense of the big picture they have gotten here thus far. I am certain they all take this game very seriously and appreciate their added ability to augment their own unique sense of opportunity and risk investing in the stock market.
So, performance you see from me is subject to wide swings. Yet not from over-trading. Rather from sticking with positions that are well-justified by the big picture whose possibilities, though finite and several, taken together lend greater assurance that, in the end one's patience will pay.
And Yves, your calling my blog a "guilty pleasure" was the finest thing! That lemming effect in financial markets has its effect on writers, too. Thank you for making me a part of your life and thank you for freely giving me a part of your life, too. Long live the internet...
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.
Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.
Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.
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