Simple Reality ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Simple Reality

If I may say so briefly (and be believed), today's trading largely added evidence top is in.

NYSE 5-min
NASDAQ 5-min

Boy, oh boy. The price-RSI configuration since top in both of the above views suggests that, following the initial move down a consolidation has been unfolding, setting the stage for further declines.

What's more ... NASDAQ clearly is leading the way lower. Contrasting NYSE and NASDAQ, the past ten days have marked a transition. It appears the trend is turning over.

Last week's bump in the volume of shares traded on both exchanges as respective Composite indexes topped appears all the more telling, then. What subsequently might be expected has come to pass and, right now, looks to be furthered.

So, what about "everybody" expecting a pullback here? I wonder how many call March '09 "bottom" and how their collective resolve in this belief might best be exploited? Could small swings — qualifying as "pullbacks" — be so much wishful thinking?


Pssst. The 200-day moving average of equity risk pricing (a.k.a. the Volatility Index) continues to rise. Likewise, risk pricing continues anticipating volatility well above historical average.

So, pullback? Or might greater challenges erupt from the core of a hopelessly bankrupt global financial system? (Why else would risk still be priced so high?)

Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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