No Bell Tolls At Slaughter Time ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

No Bell Tolls At Slaughter Time

Whenever the market is about to reverse direction no bell sounds announcing the turn. That's why I keep an eye on a handful of underlying technical measures. There's usually some curious development potentially signaling an imminent change in direction.

On this front about all I can say right now is, brother, where art thou?

There's really nothing technical strongly suggesting the market is on the verge of turning over (i.e. within hours). Nor is there some Elliott Wave related reason to pound the table. Nevertheless, I rather suspect a turn lower is near.


There is one curious thing worth noting. It seems the trend that's your friend of late has the S&P 500 turning lower within days of its 50-day moving average turning higher. And so it has again...

So now, with the index's RSI and MACD flattening out do I hear a fat lady singing?

Echoing in my brain is her harsh refrain ringing, "Pigs get slaughtered." I see little reason to stick around much longer. It is getting near time I close my long positions.

Fast Money
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

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