What could my analysis possibly reveal that today's visitation of demand destruction on Wall Street has not already made perfectly clear?
Goodness, judging by pre-open futures trading you would have thought Gustav had toppled a mountain of gold, twirled it into lovely ingots and dropped the mother load on the Gulf coast. Turns out the cheaply manufactured futures bid was only a wild display of wishful thinking ... and probably something more sinister, as well ... but then who am I to say? Whichever way you look at it, smart money took the easy money and ran.
Now, I will not go so far to claim today's trade makes a virtual certainty July's low will be imminently visited. Shell shock induced pessimism — justified as it is — might not immediately manifest into some variety of a selling avalanche.
Perhaps today's taste of rottenness, distilling for weeks now, was enough for the moment. Maybe a short-term bottom and another round of death warmed over a low volume bid will be served up with the usual fanfare on CNBC. You know what? Who cares.
Bottom line, proof of analytical perspective was demonstrated today with many fine displays of disbelief in the verdict. Or were underlying technicals that barely budged making the longevity case delaying the inevitable — the very disaster today's trade went some way to suggest would be the outcome?
Either way, watching this morning's mother of all financial gooses turning into a rotten egg was something like the fairy tale of Cinderella coming true at midnight: a tragic riches to rags story...
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© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.
Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.
Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.
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