Throwing Water on the Wicked Wizard of Wall Street ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Throwing Water on the Wicked Wizard of Wall Street

Oh boy. How I would love to hammer Cramer's bottom call in all things related to housing. Some other time ... soon ... I will present competent chart analysis likely to rip his conclusion to shreds.

I'll just say this right now. Typically ... at least if he is following his script ... Cramer makes a lousy macro call, then drinks Scotch on his linoleum floor. Apparently, though, the desperation for new, dumb money has become so acute that, first, a Scotch binge helping him keep a straight face, then, the kind of chart analysis sure to ruin anyone who buys into it is the order of the day.

Let me be blunt. Only commentary born of complacency would refuse to recognize the name of a formerly liberal credit system now dead, dead, dead is not Lazarus. Thus, if there were any attitude to take here at the precipice of what might likely prove to be the riskiest moment since 1929, blind, drunk and complacent is not, it seems, the wisest disposition.

It is one thing to suspect a market melt-up presenting a trading opportunity sometime in the near future ... and entirely another to claim all is well (or might soon be) such as to justify jumping in with both feet.

Indeed, this might be a good time to revisit another recent bottom call Cramer made...


Looks to me like a declining trend in financials ... a massive technical "reset" in July '08 occurring without a single notable divergence preceding it ... and now, plenty of room for a further slide, lower still, even after half of the gain made during July's short squeeze already has been erased.

I might soon need to change my name to Toto, exposing the humbug of CNBC's Wizard of Wall Street...

Okay, let's get real...

OEX 5-min

Just before the market closed today, I posted a Mr. Market Twitter saying, "Last hour bid by what is supposed to be 'smart' money probably will prove a failure over the next couple days as selling likely returns."

Well, before any serious bout of selling gets under way I suspect a drive higher towards Friday's peak (8.22.08) probably will develop. I wanted to clarify that.

And with that out of the way ... I see a play coming. Monsieur Market appears to be in trouble ... and a trip challenging July's low might be in order shortly. The evidence is in fact piling up, so stay tuned. Its presentation will be forthcoming...

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