Waiting on the Wall of Worry ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Waiting on the Wall of Worry

Being willing to call out incorrect forecasts (however meaningless their suggestion), I should point out those that are lucky, too. Like this just yesterday: "... chances are the S&P 100 will pull back to 630 before advancing beyond today's close."

Truth is the pullback today didn't happen the way I expected. But that's alright. It's all good.

OEX 5-min

I continue to suppose this week's advance probably has more to go. Indeed, RSI is behaving as one would expect. Today's RSI low, coinciding with the stock market's modest pull back and taking the Index below its low on Monday, completes a familiar picture of a maturing advance. Now we should expect the S&P 100's next leg up will coincide with RSI peaking below yesterday's high. Should this occur, we can assume the stock market probably will witness some weakness thereafter ... possibly causing weak hands to give up their shares nearer the ultimate bottom from which I am projecting a subsequent market melt-up to rapidly unfold.

Said differently ... Mr. Elliott Wave guy uses RSI to identify waves 1 through 5. Believing that, with four down (or almost so) from last Friday's low, and just one to go, this is why I, Mr. Elliot Wave guy, said yesterday: "We might see [the S&P 100] reach somewhere near 650 before this rally is over" ... and then, afterward ... "I would not discount the possibility the S&P 100 could pull back all the way to 600."

It's too early to say whether any pending pullback of this magnitude might ensue following the completion of this week's advance.


However, the one noteworthy thing about the volume of shares recently traded on the NYSE is how relatively subdued it has been, even during yesterday's break out. This is not characteristic of "the wall of worry" the stock market is said to climb. Instead, it is more a picture of complacency among those who strong hands might wish to shake. This, among other reasons, is why I suspect the next few weeks might witness the stock market more or less trading sideways ... with mid-March lows possibly even being challenged.

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