Does Being Bearish Forbid Saying, "Good Day, Sunshine?" ~ The Risk Averse Alert

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Does Being Bearish Forbid Saying, "Good Day, Sunshine?"

Another day or three and things could begin getting dicey. Yesterday's burst might still have some life. Not much, though. Everything I need to say right now has been spoken over the past several days.

OEX 5-min

I suppose the S&P 100 could squirrel around in a narrow range just below the line drawn above, and not really start falling apart until sometime around the middle of next week. This line begins at the gap open lower on Tuesday, April 8, 2008 ... and became "resistance" all that day (which, I wrote, held some significance), then again two days later (on Thursday, April 10th), and now stands in the way again.

Third time's a charm? We'll see. Within the framework of the view I take as an Elliott Wave Guy, the prelude to a period of accelerated selling simply appears at hand.

Other things, too, support my view. Again, I've revealed these the past several days.

I believe an opportunity to short the OEX appears imminent. So, stick around and...

Good day, sunshine.

* * * * *

© The Risk Averse Alert — Advocating a patient, disciplined approach to stock market investing. Overriding objective is limiting financial risk. Minimizing investment capital loss is a priority.

Analysis centers on the stock market's path of least resistance. Long-term, this drives a simple strategy for safely investing a 401(k) for maximum profit. Intermediate-term, investing with stock index tracking-ETFs (both their long and short varieties) is advanced. Short-term, stock index options occasionally offer extraordinary profit opportunities when the stock market is moving along its projected path.

Nothing is set in stone. Nor is the stock market's path of least resistance always known. More often than not, there are no stock index option positions recommended.

There's an easy way to boost your investment discipline...

Get Real-Time Trade Notification!


Bernie said...

The market seems to think the March 17th low is a thing of the past, though the volume was low today just as on Wednesday, so like you i'm inclined to believe this is a false run-up. But a return to 580?

TC said...

Bernie: The volume more or less has been subdued since the March 17th low. Check out Thank You, Sir, May I Have Another for further discussion on this. It seems reasonable the S&P 100 could fall back to the area of 580. I suspect we are looking at circumstances a good bit similar to those existing from the July '02 low through the March '03 low. As such, we could see one more retest of January '08 and March '08 lows ... at the very least. (I also am concerned something worse could happen.)